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SEED OUTLOOK 2000
I have spoken with several native grass seed companies over the last couple weeks asking them about seed supplies, prices and trends. I do this annually to help give you some insight into the market and availability of native seeds for the coming year. Hopefully this information will keep you from getting "taken" in the process of buying your seed for your year 2000 plantings and give you an idea of what to expect.
As always, weather plays a big role in the amount of seed produced. Many areas of Kansas and the lower Midwest experienced severe drought, which still continues, through July and August, important months for flowering and seed set. However, the upper Midwest experienced normal to near normal rainfall, offsetting any shortages in the southern seed producing areas. Production of big bluestem was surprisingly good in Kansas and Missouri. Unfortunately, indiangrass didn't fare as well, but did well in other areas. Little bluestem is in short supply in all areas. Sideoats grama production was normal, but not as many acres of sideoats are grown as the other species, limiting overall availability. Supplies are expected to be adequate or nearly adequate. Blackwell and Cave-in-Rock switchgrass are in surplus. Kanlow switchgrass seed is nearly nonexistent. Eastern gamagrass seed production was normal. However, supply problems are expected to develop after the first of the year. Eastern gamagrass is one of the lower cost seeds approved in many CRP mixes and consequently has been specified in larger amounts than in the past in an attempt to lower the overall seed price, increasing the demand dramatically.
Several seed companies reported higher than normal demand for fall seed, due to fall seeding of CRP. This fall demand has consumed all carryover of last year's seed and has the seed companies scrambling to clean this year's crop to meet their order obligations. It is also likely, because of this fall demand, that supplies won't last into next spring as long as they have in the past. There is another CRP sign-up scheduled for mid-January through early February that will put additional pressure on the market for spring supplies.
Generally speaking prices are near or slightly lower than last year's with a couple of exceptions, little bluestem and sideoats grama. I expect prices to creep up after February, but may hold off until late March or April. Seed will most likely be in short supply in April and May if available at all. The later in the season the harder it will be to get individual species. In fact, many companies are only selling little bluestem in mixes right now.
Forb seed is hard to predict. There are lots of seed collectors out there and just when you think there isn't any "so and so" to be found, it magically appears from the woodwork. It is reported, however, that purple prairie clover is in short supply, Illinois bundleflower and partridge pea are in good supply. There are no reports on any other species.
It is more important than ever to plan your plantings and order as soon as possible this fall. Expect lower PLS percentages due to weather. Generally, purity is lower but germination is higher. That is not uncommon following a dry year though. Expect prices to be comparable to last year through early spring and then look for an upturn. Buy only tested seed with a test date no older than 9 months from purchase date. As always, buyer beware.
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